Americans’ desire for normalcy is beginning to outweigh fear of the virus. But as we loosen the belt, we need to do so strategically. A guiding principle is to loosen the belt during refractory periods between variant waves and tighten the belt as variants spread like wildfire to “flatten the curve” on explosive growth to […]
Interviewer: Nice to see you. You haven’t said anything in a while. Me: I’m burned out. Interviewer: Join the club. But we’re out of this pandemic hellhole soon, right? Me: I have no crystal ball. But we’ve been watching respiratory virus pandemics for more than a hundred years. There have been at least five – […]
You heard: Breakthrough infections are uncommon. What that means: Breakthrough infections are uncommon when you look at the totality of data spanning from when vaccines began to be rolled out in December 2020. The New York Times and other papers often cite a Kaiser Family Foundation report that states Almost all (more than 9 in […]
“Wear a mask!” I stopped running and wheeled around. A middle-aged woman ambled towards me on DC’s Glover-Archibald hiking trail. She was alone and walked with a long stick. “Wear a mask!” she repeated, closing to within five yards of me. “Don’t judge me,” I glowered. “I’m not judging you, I just want you […]
If you thought controversies over masks and lab-leaks were fever pitched, just hold your hats until the COVID-19 vaccine is licensed for kids under 12 this fall. Nothing gets Americans lathered up like policies that affect the safety of their kids. The diversity of opinions on this matter is about to skyrocket because the cost-benefits […]
TL;DR: Everything is in place for the COVID-19 pandemic to end in America. The vaccines are working beautifully, even against new variants. But vaccine hesitancy remains a stubborn barrier to full normalcy, putting American on course to reach equilibrium, not eradication. Ahead of last summer I was telling everyone they were fools for declaring the […]
COVID-19 slashed red tape and poured in government funding to spark giant leaps forward in scientific innovation, most prominently in vaccinology but also behind-the-scenes in genetic sequencing to track a fast-evolving virus generating new variants. These developments set the stage for promising new strategies for a range of infectious disease threats, from malaria to influenza. […]
The World Health Organization’s recent probe into the origins of COVID-19 in Wuhan has renewed interest in piecing together when, where, and how the virus jumped from animals to humans during the fall of 2019. The Wuhan Seafood Market outbreak appears to be a red herring, serving as an early amplifier of a simmering outbreak […]
TL;DR: New variants cropping up globally are headed to America and threaten to overwhelm hospitals. Our highly potent vaccines still protect pretty well against new strains, but we are not rolling out vaccine fast enough to prevent new epidemic spikes. November’s announcement of highly effective COVID-19 vaccines brought a refreshing break in the otherwise bleak […]
From childhood, I was determined not to become an economist. My father was an economics professor. So was his father, sister, and brother-in-law. I don’t know what other families talk about at the dinner table. My family talked about airline deregulation. My father was conservative, his relatives were liberal, and the same circular arguments about […]
Dear America, By now, six months into the COVID pandemic, you’re probably ready to punch someone in the face. Maybe you lost your job. Maybe your local school district just told you they’re not offering in-person school this fall. What the bleep am I going to do with my children?? Maybe you’d like to sucker […]
Low COVID infection rates of children combined with other countries reopening schools have made US officials bullish about sending kids back to the classroom this fall. But the question Should schools open? may not be as important as Will they stay open? Recurring outbreaks in a school district could mean a return to online learning […]
A coronavirus kindly spared a few minutes to tell me about the pandemic from its own perspective. Me: Thank you so much for taking the time. America has a lot of questions for you. First, is coronavirus the way you prefer to be called? Coronavirus: COVID is fine. Me: Can you tell us a little […]
As scientists race to develop a COVID vaccine at record pace, it’s worth noting that half the country isn’t planning to take it. Or at least isn’t sure if they’ll take it. Millions of Americans opting out of a COVID vaccine would be catastrophic for public health and economic recovery. So it’s worth understanding why […]
Futbol! As a possible sign that the apocalypse is not coming quite yet, Premier League soccer began in the UK last week. US star Christian Pulisic came off the bench to score for Chelsea. While wearing a Black Lives Matter shirt. Was this my reward for all those months of quarantine? But as we celebrate […]
In my last post I mentioned that people shouldn’t assess COVID risk solely based on the presence or absence of masks. But I didn’t clarify what criteria should be used instead. This is the order in which I generally evaluate COVID risk associated with a particular activity. This list is different from the more popular […]
You may have noticed that I didn’t say a word about masks in my recent blog post. Because by this point people are already either on Team Mask or Team Naked Face and no one is switching teams. To Team Mask, masks have become an indicator of whether someone is informed/socially responsible or ignorant/narcissist. To […]
Congratulations, America. You have survived Stage 1 of the Tour de COVID. You pulled together, and learned all kinds of new tricks. How to Zoom. How to order groceries online. How to homeschool kids. And the trickiest of all: how to walk in public with an awareness of your space that requires not burying your […]
Question: Why does the Bible command us to Be Fruitful and Multiply? Answer: Because half of the kids weren’t going to see their fifth birthday. For the last 10,000 years of human history, and as recently as my grandmother’s generation, children grew up with foundational experiences that included death of friends and family by infectious […]
In the upcoming months, there will be intense pressure to relax social distancing, get back to work, and let your children run outside. And never return. For at least a week. Tension over when to open sectors of the economy will explode into a ThunderDome Death Match between politicians, economists, and medical experts. Expect government […]